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WHEN THE MARKET BEARS ROAR, DON'T PANIC

This article is reproduced with permission from
Normandy Advisory Services Sdn. Bhd (Licensed Investment Advisor)
15th Floor Menara Multi-Purpose, No 8 Jalan Munshi Abdullah, 50100 Kuala Lumpur
Tel : 03 - 469 5560 Fax : 03 - 294 5561


This article is copyright and no part of it may be reproduced in any form without the prior consent of Normandy Advisory Services


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Let us look at a hypothetical example. Mr. A has been buying share X regularly with a constant amount of RM200 on a monthly basis since January 1997. Meanwhile, Mr.B invests irregularly on the basis of market tips and he dumped all his savings on the same share X early in March on expectation that the share would double in value two months later (refer to Table 1 for details).

Table 1. Dollar-cost averaging

Mr.A (long-term investor)

Mr.B (a punter)

Period

Monthly
Investment

Share
Price

Shares
Bought

Period

Monthly
Investment

Share
Price

Shares
Bought

Jan

200

6

33

Jan

-

6

 

Feb

200

10

20

Feb

-

10

 

Mar

200

12

17

Mar

1200

12

100

Apr

200

9

22

Apr

-

9

 

May

200

6

33

May

-

6

 

June

200

8

25

June

-

8

 

Total

1200

51

150

Total

1200

51

100

Average price over a six-month period

8.50

8.50

Average cost over
a six-month period

8.00

12.00

Value of investment
(current price times
total shares)

1200

800


*Amount in RM

At the end of the day, by using dollar cost averaging, Mr A managed to break even despite the sharp market downturn. Mr.B who made a lump sum of RM1200 investment in March, a period when the market was bullish, suffered a greater loss of RM400 as his investment cost is much higher.

The average cost for Mr. A is lesser because he bought relatively more shares at the lower prices. Nevertheless, the method is not without criticism - it is harder to make continued purchases if the price continue to fall.

However, will the fundamentally-sound KLSE continues to fall? In addition, long term investors like Mr. A may find the conservative method useful in accumulating assets for retirement or other purposes. History shows that well-diversified long-term investments are more profitable.

Remember that any security of fund that you buy today will only grow over the long-term regardless of the buying price. Buying at a lower cost is definitely an added advantage. So rather than panic now should be your chance to pick up "potentials" while the prices are low.

You should follow the dollar-cost averaging method particularly if you are a conservative investor and have long term vision. But you should remember that the method does not guarantee the return of your investment - something that most investors do not understand.

If the shares that bought continue to slide consistently, you will still lose money particularly if the stocks you bought are not supported by strong fundamentals. If the stock that you bought is fundamentally sound, the lose will not be as much as if you had purchased the stock at one lump sum just before the share started to skid. Thus, always be a long term and fundamental-driven investor. Betting on rumours may not always work.

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Reproduced with permission from Normandy Services Sdn Bhd, Email:nassb@po.jaring.my Tel:603-4695560 Fax:603-2945561