There are some grounds for optimism among the industrial countries although developments
have been mixed and cyclical positions differ widely. On average they are expected
to experience moderate output growth around 2.1 percent per annum in 1998 ( Table 4).
Long-term interest rates have come down significantly with inflation remaining generally
subdued.
Growth in the United States and the United Kingdom has remained
stronger than expected, while the economic performance in Denmark, Ireland, and the
Netherlands are expected to be favourable. Despite promising signs of recovery during
the last two years, Japan's recovery has faltered and, according to OECD's estimates,
it will record - 0.3 per cent economic growth because of problems in the financial
system and continued fragility in business and consumer confidence.
|
Table
4: Selected Economies: Real GDP and Consumer Prices (Annual percent change)
|
| |
Real GDP
|
Consumer Prices1
|
|
1996
|
1997
|
1998
|
1996
|
1997
|
1998
|
| Total OECD |
2.8
|
3.1
|
2.4
|
2.3
|
2.1
|
2.1
|
| Major industrial countries |
2.5
|
2.8
|
2.1
|
2.2
|
2.1
|
1.7
|
| United States |
2.8
|
3.8
|
2.7
|
2.9
|
2.3
|
2.0
|
| Japan |
3.9
|
0.9
|
-0.3
|
0.1
|
1.7
|
0.9
|
| Germany |
1.4
|
2.2
|
2.7
|
1.5
|
1.8
|
1.6
|
| France |
1.5
|
2.4
|
2.9
|
2.0
|
1.2
|
1.4
|
| Italy |
0.7
|
1.5
|
2.4
|
3.8
|
1.8
|
1.8
|
| United Kingdom |
2.2
|
3.3
|
1.7
|
2.4
|
3.1
|
2.9
|
| Canada |
1.2
|
3.8
|
3.3
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
1.5
|
|
| Other OECD |
4.0
|
4.3
|
3.4
|
3.2
|
2.6
|
3.7
|
|
| European Union |
1.7
|
2.6
|
2.7
|
2.4
|
1.9
|
2.0
|
| South Korea |
7.1
|
5.5
|
-0.8
|
4.9
|
4.4
|
10.5
|
| Taiwan Province of China |
5.7
|
6.0
|
5.9
|
3.1
|
0.9
|
2.0
|
| Hong Kong SAR |
4.9
|
5.2
|
0.9
|
6.0
|
5.9
|
4.3
|
| Singapore |
7.0
|
7.5
|
3.2
|
1.4
|
2.2
|
2.5
|
|
Asia2 |
8.3
|
6.7
|
4.4
|
6.7
|
3.9
|
8.0
|
| China3 |
9.7
|
8.8
|
7.2
|
6.1
|
0.8
|
1.2
|
| Indonesia |
8.0
|
4.7
|
-8.5
|
7.9
|
11.1
|
35.0
|
| Malaysia |
8.2
|
7.8
|
1.4
|
3.5
|
2.7
|
7.5
|
| Philippines |
5.5
|
5.1
|
1.8
|
8.5
|
5.0
|
10.2
|
| Thailand |
6.7
|
-0.4
|
-3.5
|
5.8
|
6.0
|
12.0
|
| Vietnam2 |
9.3
|
7.5
|
5.0
|
5.7
|
3.1
|
7.0
|
Source : IMF, World
Economic Outlook, May 1998
OECD Economic Outlook, June 1998
Note:
1 Consumer prices in 1998 for OECD economies
are sourced from IMF
2 IMF
3 GNP |
